Consult the nearest Persona-user for better thoughts than mine on the question. I-

Hmn.

Starmover interference to create a new Role or Aspect, 30%. Arcana interference to create another Role or Aspect, 18.5%. Hecatite attempts to enforce orthopraxy through technological means, whether conventional or through Questing Country, 16.25%. Deedee's guess, 16.25%. Third party Liminal interference to create another Role or Aspect, 15.5%. Unknown source that is none of the others, 11%. Known species developing the appearance of a hive mind, lower than the chance of a critical or fumble. Eldritch interference, neglible.

I like few of these chances, save for the low chance of the Ancient Powers. Though a useful followup question suggests itself.

...Under a ten percent chance this is natural, though only just. Over a eleven percent chance this is the result of damage, though only just.

19% chance of the Hecatite government exploiting the emergence of a hivemind among known species to enforce orthopraxy. 11% chance of doing so with a new species, 8% of exploiting Starmover interference. All others are negligible... or cannot be calculated.

Chances could be anywhere from less than one permille to 62% that the Hecatites are completely uninvolved, which is the Dream's way of telling me "take out your deerstalker, pipe, and spyglass and pretend you're Basil Rathbone, pretending to be someone who never wore a deerstalker."

Thank you, those were important possibilities we needed to consider - and ones we cannot rule out.

Ahahah, I suspect you are being rather more literal than most would.

Let us see what good knowledge of these uncertain chances do us.

Well, naturally we are so. Fortuna selected for inverterate gamblers, to the point of pulling us from a gashapon machine.

It does make our more chaotic tendencies more understandable, I think.